The New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants and its two Global Compacts: Addressing the Symptoms or the “Root Causes” of Forced Displacement?*

By James Simeon, Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University

Causes and Consequences: Acknowledging the Roots of Forced Displacement

The New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants was adopted unanimously by the United Nations General Assembly on September 19, 2016, nearly a decade ago. At that time, the Declaration noted, that human mobility was at unprecedented levels with more than 244 million people on the move, and with more than 65 million people who are forcibly displaced, including over 21 million refugees, 3 million asylum seekers and over 40 million internally displaced persons. By the end of 2024, more than eight years later, these figures increased dramatically to 304 million people on the move or 3.7 percent of the global population, and with 123.2 million people who were forcibly displaced, 31 million refugees under the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees’ (UNHCR) mandate, and 5.9 million Palestinian refugees under the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), 8.4 million asylum-seekers, 5.9 million other people in need of international protection, and, 73.5 million internally displaced persons. Accordingly, one might say, the situation is perhaps worse today than it was when the Declaration was first adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2016.

At the heart of the Declaration is the recognition of the necessity to address the “root causes of  forced displacement.” And, chief among these are “persecution, conflict, violence, human rights violations and events seriously disturbing the public order.” But, even more to the point, the principal reason that forced displacement has been on the rise for decades is war or protracted armed conflict. As the UNHCR in its June 12, 2025, Global Trends report states,

Whether this trend continues or reverses during the rest of 2025 will largely depend on whether peace or at least a cessation in fighting is possible to achieve, particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan and Ukraine; whether the situation in South Sudan does not deteriorate further; whether conditions for return improve, in particular in Afghanistan and Syria; and how dire the impact of the current funding cuts will be on the capacity to address forced displacement situations around the world and create conducive conditions for a safe and dignified return.

Nearly 70 percent of all refugees come from only five countries: Venezuela (6.2 million); Syria Arab Republic (6.0 million); Afghanistan (5.8 million); Ukraine (5.1 million); South Sudan (2.3 million). All of these countries, save Venezuela, a special case, have been ravished by protracted armed conflict for years, if not decades. Further, if wars and/or protracted armed conflicts are the principal cause of forced displacement then it is relevant and important to note that there are 120 armed conflicts across the world today, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross. The Geneva Academy’s Rule of Law in Armed Conflict Online Portal (RULAC) is monitoring more than  110 armed conflicts in the world today. Their regional breakdown of these armed conflict is as follows:

Middle East and North Africa                                   45 armed conflicts

Africa                                                                        35 armed conflicts

Asia                                                                           21 armed conflicts

Europe                                                                        7 armed conflicts

Latin America                                                             6 armed conflicts

Most of the armed conflicts taking place in the world today are non-international armed conflicts or intrastate conflicts between government and rebel forces. Some of these conflicts are also internationalized with other States participating in the armed conflict by supporting one or the other side in the civil war. This tends to make the armed conflicts much harder to resolve and to reach a cessation of hostilities or peace agreement. The prospect for achieving a sustainable peace appears to diminish the longer an armed conflict continues and forced displacement persists for the duration of the armed conflict, irrespective of its nature, whether international or non-international.

It is also significant to point out that the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) noted that 2024 marked the highest number of State-based armed conflicts in seven decades. PRIO’s recent Conflict Trends: A Global Overview reports that there were 61 conflicts taking place in 36 countries in 2024 and that this spike in armed conflicts signalled a “structural shift.”  Their sobering conclusions were that the world is much more violent and more fragmented than a decade ago. This presages a continual escalation in the numbers of those who will be forcibly displaced in the years to come.

The New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants

The New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants is comprised of five sections and two annexes. The five sections include: I. Introduction; II. Commitments that apply to both refugees and migrants; III. Commitments for migrants; IV. Commitments for refugees; V. Follow-up to review of our commitments. The two annexes are: Annex I, A Comprehensive refugee response framework; and, Annex II, Towards a global compact for safe, orderly, and regular migration. The Declaration calls for the adoption of a Global Compact on Refugees and a Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration by 2018, as outlined in the two respective Annexes. Both of these Global Compacts, of course, were adopted by 2018. What is noteworthy is the first Annex, the comprehensive refugee response framework, charged the UNHCR, in coordination with States, to develop a broad multi-stakeholder approach to deal with mass influx situations. There would be a different comprehensive refugee response framework for each large movement of refugees. What is envision is a detailed program of action on the part of the international community to address large refugee flows while honouring and respecting the rights of refugees in international law. The search for durable solutions for those forcibly displaced is a key feature of the comprehensive refugee response framework. However, it is more than evident that the only real durable solution to large refugee flows is the eradication of organized political violence; that is, ending wars and armed conflicts.

The Global Compact on Refugees

The Global Compact on Refugees is comprised of 107 paragraphs, presented in four sections: I. Introduction; II. Comprehensive refugee response framework; III. Program of Action, the single largest part containing 89 paragraphs; and IV. Follow-up and Review. Section 1D, Preventing and addressing root causes is one of the most important subsections of this Global Compact and are comprised of paragraphs eight and nine. Paragraph eight states:

In the first instance, addressing root causes is the responsibility of countries at the origin of refugee movements. However, averting and resolving large refugee situations are also matters of serious concern to the international community as a whole, requiring early efforts to address their drivers and triggers, as well as improved cooperation among political, humanitarian, development and peace actors.

This is a clear acknowledgement of the necessity to deal with fundamental root causes for forced displacement.

Paragraph nine also states:

All States and relevant stakeholders are called on to tackle the root causes of large refugee situations, including  through heightened international efforts to prevent and resolve conflict; to uphold the Charter of the United Nations, international law, including international humanitarian law, as well as the rule of law at the national and international levels; to promote, respect, protect and fulfil human rights and fundamental freedoms for all; and to end exploitation and abuse, as well as discrimination of any kind on the basis of race, colour, sex, language, religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin, property, birth, disability, age, or other status. The international community as a whole is also called on to support efforts to alleviate poverty, reduce disaster risks, and provide development assistance to countries of origin, in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and other relevant frameworks.

Again, this is a call for, “All States and relevant stakeholders to address the root causes of large refugee situations.” Undoubtedly, this requires tackling seriously the global problem of “war and armed conflict,” that is at the very root of nearly 70 percent of the world’s refugees. However, there appears little in the way of what needs to be done to end “wars and armed conflicts.”

The Global Compact for Migration

The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration consists of the following: Preamble (paragraphs 1-8); Our Vision and Guiding Principles (paragraphs 9-15); Our Cooperative Framework (paragraph16, that lists 23 objectives); Objectives and Commitments (paragraphs 16-39); Implementation (paragraphs 40-47); Follow-Up and Review (paragraphs 48-54). This Global Compact is 34 pages in length and contains some 54 paragraphs, and with many of these with numerous subparagraph items.

Objective 2 is especially noteworthy and states:

OBJECTIVE 2: Minimize the adverse drivers and structural factors that compel people to leave their country of origin

This Global Compact follows a consistent structure under each of the 23 Objectives. After stating the objective it outlines, in a paragraph, a description of the objective and its underlying principles, and then, it presents an action plan for how the objective ought to be achieved. For Objective two it states, in part,

18. We commit to create conducive political, economic, social and environmental conditions for people to lead peaceful, productive and sustainable lives in their own country and to fulfil their personal aspirations, while ensuring that desperation and deteriorating environments do not compel them to seek a livelihood elsewhere through irregular migration. 

Again, a clear statement to seek to address the root causes of forced displacement. However, what if anything is offered in this regard? Again, precious little in the way of addressing “war and armed conflict.”

The New York Declaration and the Two Global Compacts: Concluding Observations

This leads me to several observations regarding the New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants and its two Global Compacts on Refugees and for Migration. First, it is evident that all these documents emphasize the importance of addressing the root causes of forced migration and refugeehood. Second, all these non-binding international instruments are based on common commitments of States and other stakeholders, including the UN and its relevant agencies. Thirdly, all stress the importance of follow-up and reviewing their commitments and plans of actions for realizing these commitments. Indeed, various Global Forums have been held over the years to review progress made and report the results achieved in the respective UN bodies. Fourthly, it is evident that this is an ongoing process that will take years to achieve real gains and progress. But it is also evident that the problem has not been diminishing over time. Rather, the opposite has occurred, and the numbers of those who have been forcibly displaced has increased substantially since the Global Compacts were adopted by the UN.

In many respects, measuring the progress made under the Global Compacts is fairly straightforward. For instance, one can look at the State commitments made, the various action items that have been outlined to achieve these commitments, and then assess how each State has performed in achieving their commitments under each action item. Essentially, this is largely a bookkeeping exercise that can track how each State is doing in fulfilling its commitments, year over year, for refugees and other migrants.

One of the major objectives of the New York Declaration and its two Global Compacts was to develop an international mechanism, if not global process, for addressing each large refugee flow that might occur. There is the UNHCR Refugee Coordination Model (RCM) and the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) that are intended to deal with this concern, but both of these preceded the New York Declaration and its Global Compacts by many years.

Finally, it is also clear that these international instruments pay too little heed to the central cause of the forced displacement, “war and armed conflict.” While this is acknowledged as relevant and important, it is not central to the Global Compacts processes and is primarily focussed on addressing the symptoms of forced displacement and not its “root causes,” principally, “war and armed conflict.” Until this is done, the prognosis will be, inevitably, ever escalating numbers of persons being forcibly displaced and the dire situation of refugees and migrants exacerbating without any adequate remedy.

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*For those who may be interested in contributing to our Research Topic on “Migration and Human Rights in the Age of the Global Compacts,” please visit the MDPI weblink at https://www.mdpi.com/topics/YZR1MQ87U9.